What causes recessions is one of the most important questions investors and business owners can ask—especially in a volatile economic environment. In this episode of The WealthAbility Show, Tom Wheelwright sits down with economist Dr. Tyler Goodspeed to break down the real drivers behind economic downturns and what history teaches us about navigating them.

Dr. Goodspeed explains that recessions are not predictable events driven by market timing or speculation. Instead, they are typically triggered by unexpected shocks—especially energy supply disruptions like oil price spikes, which have contributed to multiple recessions over the past century.

The conversation challenges a common assumption: that asset bubbles or market cycles are the primary cause of downturns. Instead, Dr. Goodspeed shows how sector-specific shocks—particularly in energy—can ripple through the entire economy and create broader economic contraction.

This episode solves a critical problem for investors: most people try to predict recessions instead of understanding what actually causes them. By shifting focus from prediction to preparation, investors can make more resilient decisions.

You will learn:

• What actually causes recessions (and what doesn’t)
• How oil prices and energy shocks impact inflation and growth

• Why recessions are difficult—if not impossible—to predict

• How Federal Reserve policy cycles influence inflation and interest rates
• What investors and business owners should focus on instead of timing markets

This topic matters now because inflation, energy prices, and geopolitical uncertainty continue to create economic pressure. Understanding the real drivers behind recessions allows investors to focus on long-term strategy rather than short-term fear.

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00:00 – Intro.
01:45 – Gas Prices, Interest Rates, Recession vs. Growth – Where Are We?
08:58 – Recession Cycle Signs: Unemployment, War, etc.
13:17 – Tools for Our Future: Where Are We Headed in the Next Few Years.
17:14 – What Investors and Entrepreneurs Can Do.
19:04 – Monetary Policy: Concerns of Instability and Currency Alternatives.
24:52 – Words of Wisdom on Inflation, AI, and the World Economy.
27:32 – Oil and the US Economy.
28:57 – Closing Statements.

Looking for More on Tyler Goodspeed? Book: “Recession: The Real Reasons Economies Shrink and What to Do About It” LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tylergoodspeed/ Twitter/X: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tylergoodspeed

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